Nicholas Francisco, 28, Male, Seattle, 2/13/08

[invreporter]

Nicholas Francisco has been missing from Seattle, WA since February 13, 2008.

Stats can be found at
http://www.findnicholasfrancisco.com/

Nicholas Francisco was an Art Director who was employed by Publicis in the West. He was last seen on Feb. 13 leaving work.

[murphyjack]

I remember this young man's story! Is there any new info about Nicholas?

Mj
San Francisco

[dan_uk]

The wife of the local man who has not been seen since the day before Valentine's Day has filed for divorce.

King County Superior Court records indicate Christine Francisco, 28 is seeking to sever legal ties with Nicholas Francisco, 28, who vanished while driving home from his Queen Anne office on Feb. 13, 2008.

Police found Nicholas' red 1992 Toyota Paseo hatchback five days later at a Federal Way condominium complex. Investigators found no indication of foul play.

The Franciscos have a 4-year-old daughter and a 2-year-old son. Christine is also pregnant with their third child due in October.

Christine requested custody of her children, alleging "willful abandonment that continues for a period of time" and a "history of acts of domestic violence ... or an assault or sexual assault which causes grievous bodily harm or the fear of such harm."

In their last phone conversation from Nicholas' work phone, he told his wife that he was "signing off on something," then planned to head home after running an errand at Costco for her.

"He told me he loved me," said Christine.

He also promised his 4-year-old daughter, Zea, he'd make Valentine's Day cookies with her, but never showed.

Several tips surfaced following the man's disappearance and a reward for $5,000 was being offered for information leading to his discovery. His wife also made public pleas for any information on Nicholas' whereabouts, but he has yet to be found.

[murphyjack]

Dan_uk Did I read it right? The wife is pregnant with 3rd child, and has filled for divorce. It will only be a year the 12. I know it must be hard but I think I would have waited a while longer. Was their domestic violence?
MJ
San Francisco

[dan_uk]

maybe his wife got pregnent by another man and the wife and the other bloke killed nicholas

[One2Snoop]

Originally Posted by dan_uk

maybe his wife got pregnent by another man and the wife and the other bloke killed nicholas

Uhm ok dan, whatcha ya been drinking today? When Nicholas went missing last Feb, IIRC it was reported shortly thereafter that his wife was pregnant and due in late 2008. After extensive investigation by LE in every nook and cranny of their lives I don't recall anything about a boyfriend in the picture.
I can't blame her for wanting to move on with her life. If Nicholas is still alive its a shame he wasn't man enough to face her and ask for a divorce instead of just disappearing and shirking all his responsibilities where his kids are concerned.

JMO

[SaraSidle]

.http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2010237613_webfranciscofound10m.html

[One2Snoop]

Originally Posted by SaraSidle

.http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2010237613_webfranciscofound10m.html

Say it ain't so? Links not working Sara - I'll see if I can find another one.

[One2Snoop]

Missing' SeaTac man found with new name, in new state
Originally published Monday, November 9, 2009 at 1:40 PM

Nicholas Francisco, a SeaTac man whose sudden disappearance last year sparked a law-enforcement search and widespread Internet speculation, is "alive and well" and living in another state under a new name, according to the King County Sheriff's Office.

By Christine Clarridge
Seattle Times staff reporter

Nicholas Francisco, 28, was previously reported missing in February 2008. The King County Sheriff's Office announced Monday he had been located and was "alive and well" in another state living under a new name.



Nicholas Francisco, 28, was previously reported missing in February 2008. The King County Sheriff's Office announced Monday he had been located and was "alive and well" in another state living under a new name.

A SeaTac man whose sudden disappearance last year sparked a law-enforcement search and widespread Internet speculation, is "alive and well" and living in another state under a new name, according to the King County Sheriff's Office.

The Sheriff's Office wouldn't reveal which state Nicholas Francisco had moved to, but said he had legally changed his name to avoid being tracked down.

A law enforcement source said Francisco is now living in California.

Francisco, whose wife was expecting their third child, was last seen leaving his job at a Queen Anne advertising agency for home on Feb. 13, 2008. His car, a red 1992 Toyota Paseo, was found a few days later in Federal Way.

The Sheriff's Office did an extensive investigation, including a search of the Green River, to learn if he had been a victim of foul play, but nothing turned up.

Last week, detectives developed information that he was alive. He had changed his name and was living outside of Washington state, the Sheriff's Office said.

His wife, Christine Francisco, initially claimed that her husband would never have abandoned the family. She later filed for divorce.

Francisco's disappearance captivated people and theories on his fate abounded on Internet forums, some of which were devoted solely to his case, according to sheriff's spokesman Sgt. John Urquhart.

He said last year he'd never seen a case quite like it.

"I have been flabbergasted by the amount of people across the country who have taken an interest in this case. And I don't know why," Urquhart said.

According to Urquhart, hundreds of people contacted the Sheriff's Office to share their ideas, he said.

According to Urquhart, some suggested he was leading a double life. Others thought he had run off to Australia. Some Web sleuths even called with information from their psychics or to give investigators tips on where to search next.

Christine Francisco could not be reached for comment on Monday.

The Sheriff's Office said they have now closed the investigation.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...ofound10m.html

[J. J. in Phila]

This just came up in relation to the Gricar case. Yes, some people do walk away.

[One2Snoop]

Originally Posted by J. J. in Phila

This just came up in relation to the Gricar case. Yes, some people do walk away.

No doubt, but very uncommon IMO. Do you think RG walked away? I've not been swayed by either side. Just curious about your thoughts.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally Posted by One2Snoop

No doubt, but very uncommon IMO. Do you think RG walked away? I've not been swayed by either side. Just curious about your thoughts.

I'd give it a 48% chance of walkaway, 42% chance of murder, 10% of something else, mostly suicide.

I have yet to see solid evidence of walk away or murder. Note that neither option breaks 50%. There is, however, slightly more evidence that points to walkaway, but not a lot.

If I knew what LE looked at, and found, the chances on walkaway might increase or decrease dramatically.

[2-B]

Originally Posted by One2Snoop

No doubt, but very uncommon IMO. Do you think RG walked away? I've not been swayed by either side. Just curious about your thoughts.

Voluntary disappearance is actually the most common reason for adults to go missing BUT (and it's a big but) most adults who "go missing" voluntarily return home in a reasonably short time.

I've done some checking on the statistics from National Center for Missing Adults. Only about 10-15% of the missing adults at any given time would be considered in the "foul play" arena.

If you mean a long-term voluntary disappearances like Nick's, I'd agree that's uncommon.

In the RG case, LE hasn't uncovered any of the classic reasons for a walkaway--no signs of money problems, job problems, relationship problems, mental health issues, physical health issues, blackmail, fraud, alternate lifestyle issues, etc. which usually turn up pretty quickly in such cases.

In Nick's case, LE were aware pretty early on that some of those factors may have been at play. Not so in the Gricar case.

For the record, from what I understand from reading Nick's board at In Session, many close to Nick thought early on that he might have walked away from his life.

In the Gricar case, his nephews and daughter--those who loved and knew him best--do not believe he could have walked away, specifically citing the fact that Ray had been through his own brother being missing for ten days before his body was discovered (his brother committed suicide 9 years before Ray disappeared).

Just my two cents from having followed both cases.

[J. J. in Phila]

Let's be clear here. Gricar's daughter has not been too public in saying what she thinks happened to him, and his closest friend in the area, ADA Steve Sloane, thinks he walked away. Is he right? I don't know.

I don't think there is enough evidence to rule out either murder or walkaway.

[2-B]

As family spokesperson, Tony Gricar has made Lara Gricar's position clear:

Tony Gricar, Gricar’s nephew and the family’s spokesman, said he and Gricar’s daughter Lara do not believe his uncle is still alive.

“Speaking for myself, Lara and my brother, we don’t believe he is still alive and don’t think he will walk through the door," he said.

http://74.125.93.132/search?q=cache:...&ct=clnk&gl=us

[bolding mine]

Nick's case has some similarities to Ray's, but the differences are striking when one examines what LE learned about Nick post-disappearance.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally Posted by 2-B

As family spokesperson, Tony Gricar has made Lara Gricar's position clear:

Tony Gricar, Gricar’s nephew and the family’s spokesman, said he and Gricar’s daughter Lara do not believe his uncle is still alive.

“Speaking for myself, Lara and my brother, we don’t believe he is still alive and don’t think he will walk through the door," he said.

http://74.125.93.132/search?q=cache:...&ct=clnk&gl=us

[bolding mine]

Nick's case has some similarities to Ray's, but the differences are striking when one examines what LE learned about Nick post-disappearance.

Here is actually what her attorney said a few months before:

"This is the kind of slip up that happens when everybody is concerned about someone's well-being," Goodall said. "We are taking steps to reinstate that immediately. ... We believe that Ray is still alive, and we want to keep things in place for him so that he can start his life again and have his affairs in order for him."

http://www.centredaily.com/news/ray_...tory/3796.html

I believe Mr. Goodall also made a similar comment when Gricar's law license was made inactive. I believe there is a link on the actual Gricar thread.

Please also not that Tony Gricar is not Lara Gricar, and that family members have issued said conflicting things.

The point is, yes, people do walk away. Did Gricar? I don't know.

[2-B]

Originally Posted by J. J. in Phila

Here is actually what her attorney said a few months before:

"This is the kind of slip up that happens when everybody is concerned about someone's well-being," Goodall said. "We are taking steps to reinstate that immediately. ... We believe that Ray is still alive, and we want to keep things in place for him so that he can start his life again and have his affairs in order for him."

http://www.centredaily.com/news/ray_...tory/3796.html

I believe Mr. Goodall also made a similar comment when Gricar's law license was made inactive. I believe there is a link on the actual Gricar thread.

Goodall is speaking "legalese" with regard to a legal maneuver.

Please also not that Tony Gricar is not Lara Gricar, and that family members have issued said conflicting things.

As you well know, JJ, we have both posted with Tony at the In Session board and are familiar with his positions not only from media quotes but also from his board postings. Many of his board postings have been swept away in housekeeping, but the quote I put on this thread is consistent with what he has posted at In Session with regard to LG's feelings.

He is the family spokesperson for a reason, and that is to speak for other members of the family so that they do not have to be dragged into the media glare. He voluntarily put himself in that position as a way of paying Ray back for helping out when his own father went missing. I'm sure you are aware of that.

If Lara did not share his and his brother's belief that RG is likely no longer alive, he needed only to leave her out of the statement and say that he and his brother no longer felt that their uncle was alive. He deliberately chose to include Lara for a reason. The three of them obviously agreed.

The point is, yes, people do walk away.

There is nothing profound in observing that people walk away, since the vast majority of missing persons are missing voluntarily.

A case like Nick's is more interesting only because Nick managed to establish a new life under a new name for 21 months before discovery--and because of a lot of rumors flying around in the case largely having been generated by his wife (my opinion only having followed Nick's case).

Those rumors, of course, helped LE investigate motives Nick may have had for leaving voluntarily, motives that surfaced as possibilities soon after his disappearance.

No similar motives have surfaced in Ray Gricar's case in more than 4.5 years.

With no classic motives evident, you and one or two of your friends have tried to invent a long-planned walkaway created by Gricar. You've claimed he was motivated by the desire to prove how brilliant he was to feed his ego and keep message board posters talking about him years later. But that motive is inconsistent with Ray's established character. This, specifically, is the reason you encounter so much resistance to your walkaway theme whenever it arises.

LE in Washington state was aware of what they referred to as "issues" in Nick Francisco's life long before he was discovered living in California under an assumed name. They didn't need to invent issues to create a possible motive for Nick's disappearance. That's one major difference between Nick's case and Ray's, IMO--nothing publicly available to work from as a possible motive for Ray to have walked away from his life.

[J. J. in Phila]

Goodall might be speaking "legalize," but Lara isn't speaking. It really is not a "legal maneuver" to say, **We don't know his status, but the legal presumption is that he is alive.**

And, 2-B, we do have other examples of people that successfully do walk away, "Joe Chandler," for one. It was only after he died was it discovered that the man that had lived under the name "Joe Chandler," for two decades, wasn't Joe Chandler.

You can Google the name "Joseph Newton Chandler" and find out about him.

[2-B]

Originally Posted by J. J. in Phila

Goodall might be speaking "legalize," but Lara isn't speaking. It really is not a "legal maneuver" to say, **We don't know his status, but the legal presumption is that he is alive.**

Here's what we do know, JJ.

TG is the family spokesperson, designated by the family to speak for the family. When Tony says, "Speaking for myself, Lara and my brother, we don’t believe he is still alive and don’t think he will walk through the door," Tony has

a) articulated a very clear position regarding whom he speaks for (Tony, Chris, and Lara) AND

b) spoken as the designated family spokesperson for the family to represent the family's personal position.

Amos Goodall, while a family friend, is not designated to speak for Lara's personal position (that is TG's role). In the quote you cited, it is not even clear who the "we" he refers to might be.

However, it is clear in a one-year anniversary quote from Goodall that he [Goodall] believes Lara retains at least some "hope" that her father is still alive:

Still, his daughter, Lara, continues to hope for a happy ending, said her attorney and family friend Amos Goodall.

"I don't think she's ever given up hope that her father will come back," Goodall said. "But I believe, if there was any way for him to get a message to her, he would have by now. But she's never given up hope."

http://www.centredaily.com/news/ray_...#ixzz0XE46UnQX

[bolding mine]

Note that in the quote above and in the following, Goodall himself says it would be out of character for RG to have walked away and certainly contradicts any legal position taken on Ray being alive:

"It would be really out of character for Ray to intentionally disappear," Goodall said. "I find it very hard to believe Ray left willingly. Personally, I don't know. I really haven't come to any conclusion on it."

Obviously, then, his statement in the quote you cited was indeed a legal maneuver and did not represent his personal feelings on Ray's disappearance. Nor did that statement represent Lara's position, which was clearly articulated by Tony. She may hope that her father will return, but Tony has made it clear she believes that he is no longer alive.

And, 2-B, we do have other examples of people that successfully do walk away, "Joe Chandler," for one. It was only after he died was it discovered that the man that had lived under the name "Joe Chandler," for two decades, wasn't Joe Chandler.

You can Google the name "Joseph Newton Chandler" and find out about him.

No one has ever questioned that some people successfully walk away, JJ. There is nothing profound in coming up with examples of people who have done so. Any true crime aficianado can reel off a list of people who have done so.

This week, we've merely added Nicholas Francisco to that list.

Does that tell us anything about the Ray Gricar case? Not a single thing.

[2-B]

April 2006:

The Gricar family, however, no longer holds much hope that Ray Gricar will be found alive, Tony Gricar said.

Even Lara, who long believed her father was still alive, has accepted that, he said.

"Early on, she was hopeful," Tony Gricar said.

"But now, she doesn't believe he is alive."

http://74.125.93.132/search?q=cache:...#ixzz0XESQTrOg

[bolding mine]

Compare to the position taken by Nick Francisco's wife and family.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally Posted by 2-B

April 2006:

The Gricar family, however, no longer holds much hope that Ray Gricar will be found alive, Tony Gricar said.

Even Lara, who long believed her father was still alive, has accepted that, he said.

"Early on, she was hopeful," Tony Gricar said.

"But now, she doesn't believe he is alive."

http://74.125.93.132/search?q=cache:...#ixzz0XESQTrOg

[bolding mine]

Compare to the position taken by Nick Francisco's wife and family.

April 12, 2006:

"If you're not around, you can't do your continuing education," Goodall said Tuesday evening. "When he gets back, he's going to have to get caught up."

And,

Goodall said Lara Gricar still has hope that her father will eventually be found alive.

"Absolutely," he said. "Lara has never given up hope."

http://s2.excoboard.com/exco/thread....hreadid=737159

One thing that you have understand about this case is that Lara and Tony often don't say the same things.

[2-B]

Originally Posted by J. J. in Phila

One thing that you have understand about this case is that Lara and Tony often don't say the same things.

Hope and belief are two entirely different things, JJ.

People buy lottery tickets and hope they will win large amounts of money.

Few of those people actually believe they will win the big bucks.

Goodall is simply reflecting what Lara hopes. No daughter who loves her father would give up hope that he is alive.

Tony is reflecting Lara's belief. And there is a difference. I am certain both Tony and Chris also hope their uncle is alive!

I hope Ray Gricar is alive. I believe he is likely dead.

In Nick's case, those closest to Nick came to believe he was alive based on their personal knowledge of Nick and based on what the investigation uncovered.

In the Gricar case, those closest to Ray (Lara, Tony, and Chris) have come to believe Ray is most likely dead based on their personal knowledge of Ray and based on what the investigation has failed to uncover to this point.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally Posted by 2-B

Hope and belief are two entirely different things, JJ.

People buy lottery tickets and hope they will win large amounts of money.

Few of those people actually believe they will win the big bucks.

Goodall is simply reflecting what Lara hopes. No daughter who loves her father would give up hope that he is alive.

Tony is reflecting Lara's belief. And there is a difference. I am certain both Tony and Chris also hope their uncle is alive!

I hope Ray Gricar is alive. I believe he is likely dead.

In Nick's case, those closest to Nick came to believe he was alive based on their personal knowledge of Nick and based on what the investigation uncovered.

In the Gricar case, those closest to Ray (Lara, Tony, and Chris) have come to believe Ray is most likely dead based on their personal knowledge of Ray and based on what the investigation has failed to uncover to this point.

The actions she's taken are for someone who might return. "When he gets back," as opposed to "If he gets back." Sorry, I know it destroys your theories, but we see the sames types of things in the Gricar case as in the Francisco case.

Now, does that mean that the Gricar case will have the same explanation as the Francisco case? Maybe or maybe not.

BTW, I think this reference was mentioned of the Gricar thread.

[2-B]

Originally Posted by J. J. in Phila

Sorry, I know it destroys your theories, but we see the sames types of things in the Gricar case as in the Francisco case.

[bolding mine]

Excuse me? We do?

Did police discover that Ray Gricar had a secret PayPal account?

Did Ray Gricar withdraw $50 from his bank account AFTER his disappearance?

Was there evidence of Ray Gricar engaging in online computer activity AFTER his disappearance?

Did police in the Gricar case state, "Issues in his personal life have been uncovered" as police in the Nick Francisco case did?

Did Patty Fornicola say of Ray Gricar that evidence uncovered on the Internet revealed a "whole other life," including hidden bank accounts the way that Christine Francisco said this of her husband, Nick?

Did Patty say of Ray, "Ray chose to lead a double life behind my back to which he started long before he ever met me. He chose to commit adultery. He chose to lie," the way that CF did?

Did Patty Fornicola give the Bellefonte Police Department information that Ray was "living a double life, was having sex with men and woman and had secret bank accounts" the way that CF did?

You are trying to draw parallels that do not even exist.

I have no idea whether Nicholas was actually living a secret life, whether he cheated on Christine with men and women, whether he had secret bank accounts, whether he established an online presence after his disappearance, etc.

What I do know is that his wife took that information to the police.

And I know that nothing like that has occurred in the Gricar case as far as the public is aware.

So back up, cowboy.

[J. J. in Phila]

This theory, 2-B:

Originally Posted by 2-B

For the record, from what I understand from reading Nick's board at In Session, many close to Nick thought early on that he might have walked away from his life.

In the Gricar case, his nephews and daughter--those who loved and knew him best--do not believe he could have walked away, specifically citing the fact that Ray had been through his own brother being missing for ten days before his body was discovered (his brother committed suicide 9 years before Ray disappeared).

Obviously, people close to Mr. Gricar think he might have walked away. Obviously, his daughter, through her attorney, considers this possible. His girlfriend, in the press conference after the disappearance, asked him to phone home.

I also know of no case where anyone close to Mr. Gricar claimed that because his brother Roy's body wasn't found for ten days, that he wouldn't walk away.

2-B, the quoted passage is your invention, and that theory is destroyed.

[2-B]

Originally Posted by J. J. in Phila

This theory, 2-B:

Obviously, his daughter, through her attorney, considers this possible. His girlfriend, in the press conference after the disappearance, asked him to phone home.

No, JJ. We see through Lara's attorney that Lara hopes her father is alive. There is a difference, one that you keep ignoring. Even her attorney does not believe Ray Gricar walked away as demonstrated in the quote I posted from Goodall.

The press conference wording was explained by Tony. It was done for a specific reason to achieve a specific effect. Or have you conveniently forgotten that?

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally Posted by 2-B

No, JJ. We see through Lara's attorney that Lara hopes her father is alive. There is a difference, one that you keep ignoring. Even her attorney does not believe Ray Gricar walked away as demonstrated in the quote I posted from Goodall.

The press conference wording was explained by Tony. It was done for a specific reason to achieve a specific effect. Or have you conveniently forgotten that?

"When he returns .. " No if. Unless you are suggesting that someone is animating his corpse, that is not an indication that Lara believes he's dead.

No, Tony Gricar indicated that everyone was stressed, as obviously they would be in this case. What "effect" did you think they were trying to create?

Would you provide a quote from Lara that said, "I think my father is dead?"

Keep spinning. It's comments like those that are helping convince people that Mr. Gricar walked away and that only conspiracy theories believe otherwise.

Unfortunately, Mr. Gricar might not have walked away.

[J. J. in Phila]

BTW, there is a nice Gricar thread on this site where these points can be (and some have been) discussed.

[2-B]

Originally Posted by J. J. in Phila

BTW, there is a nice Gricar thread on this site where these points can be (and some have been) discussed.

Interesting that you should make this comment, since you are the one who introduced Ray Gricar into this thread. One2Snoop then, quite innocently, asked whether it looked as if Ray Gricar had walked away and you started pulling statistics from thin air again, as per your usual modus operandi.

I've focused my discussion on this thread on a comparison/contrast of Nick's case and Ray's case, since I have followed both these disappearances. At first glance, there are some similarities.

However, one major difference is that people close to Nick took evidence to LE in Washington state suggesting that Nick had established an alternate life after walking away from his old life, which is why many believed that he had walked away.

The same cannot be said in the Gricar case. After 21 months, we have a "live" Nick Francisco. After 4.5+ years, we still have a missing Ray Gricar.

Show me anyone following the Ray Gricar case who does not "hope" that Ray Gricar is alive, and I will show you someone LE ought to focus on in Ray Gricar's disappearance. Hoping Ray is alive and believing he is alive are two entirely different things. Lara believes her father is likely dead. So do Tony, Chris, the former lead detective DZ, and a host of others connected to the case.

Do you have any other suggestions/complaints?

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally Posted by 2-B

Interesting that you should make this comment, since you are the one who introduced Ray Gricar into this thread. One2Snoop then, quite innocently, asked whether it looked as if Ray Gricar had walked away and you started pulling statistics from thin air again, as per your usual modus operandi.

You seemed to have missed this comment then:

I have yet to see solid evidence of walk away or murder. Note that neither option breaks 50%. There is, however, slightly more evidence that points to walkaway, but not a lot.

You seem again to be objecting to me saying there is not yet enough evidence to reach a conclusion.

I've focused my discussion on this thread on a comparison/contrast of Nick's case and Ray's case, since I have followed both these disappearances. At first glance, there are some similarities.

And, you either referred to thing unknown in the Gricar case, or invented some statements.

However, one major difference is that people close to Nick took evidence to LE in Washington state suggesting that Nick had established an alternate life after walking away from his old life, which is why many believed that he had walked away.

And this is a similarity between the the two cases, some people close to the missing person thought he walked away.

The same cannot be said in the Gricar case.

False.

After 21 months, we have a "live" Nick Francisco. After 4.5+ years, we still have a missing Ray Gricar.

And after more than two decades, we had Joe Chandler. Nobody knew he wasn't "Joe Chandler" until he died. We still don't know who he was.

Show me anyone following the Ray Gricar case who does not "hope" that Ray Gricar is alive, and I will show you someone LE ought to focus on in Ray Gricar's disappearance. Hoping Ray is alive and believing he is alive are two entirely different things. Lara believes her father is likely dead. So do Tony, Chris, the former lead detective DZ, and a host of others connected to the case.

I have shown you evidence that Lara Gricar, through her attorney, is acting as though he is alive.

Do you have any other suggestions/complaints?

You could try accuracy.

[One2Snoop]

Chill pill people. It's ok to talk comparisons if you want. This isn't Insession and you won't be banned for being a little off topic or for comparing the 2 situations in the Francisco thread. Just sayin'

[2-B]

Originally Posted by J. J. in Phila

You seemed to have missed this comment then:

I have yet to see solid evidence of walk away or murder. Note that neither option breaks 50%. There is, however, slightly more evidence that points to walkaway, but not a lot.

You seem again to be objecting to me saying there is not yet enough evidence to reach a conclusion.

Nah. I just see the way you play things in public (here, your blog) vs. what you say at In Session:

JJ, 12-31-2007, 02:55 PM, says, "If I believed that all the witnesses were 100% accurate, or even 75% accurate, I would be saying walkaway."

http://boards.insessiontrials.com/sh...=321433&page=7

JJ, 08-14-2009, 10:24 PM, says with regard to the witnesses, "the odds were above 90%, probably above 99%."

http://boards.insessiontrials.com/sh...ighlight=99%25

Ergo, you've reached your level of certainty. We all know you place your faith in the witnesses in the Gricar case. You've spelled it out: you've given them "probably above 99%" odds of being right. And you've said that if you believed the witnesses even to a degree of 75% accuracy, you would be saying walkaway.

Methinks you play coy in more public venues.

[2-B]

Originally Posted by J. J. in Phila

"When he returns .. " No if. Unless you are suggesting that someone is animating his corpse, that is not an indication that Lara believes he's dead.

Would you provide a quote from Lara that said, "I think my father is dead?"

Keep spinning.

Is Lara saying, "I'm certain without a doubt that my father is not out there alive and well" and "I highly doubt my dad is still alive" on video sufficient "indication" that she believes he is likely dead?

This is in response to the walkaway theory, btw.

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=1633373n&tag=api

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally Posted by 2-B

Nah. I just see the way you play things in public (here, your blog) vs. what you say at In Session:

JJ, 12-31-2007, 02:55 PM, says, "If I believed that all the witnesses were 100% accurate, or even 75% accurate, I would be saying walkaway."

http://boards.insessiontrials.com/sh...=321433&page=7

JJ, 08-14-2009, 10:24 PM, says with regard to the witnesses, "the odds were above 90%, probably above 99%."

http://boards.insessiontrials.com/sh...ighlight=99%25

Ergo, you've reached your level of certainty. We all know you place your faith in the witnesses in the Gricar case. You've spelled it out: you've given them "probably above 99%" odds of being right. And you've said that if you believed the witnesses even to a degree of 75% accuracy, you would be saying walkaway.

Methinks you play coy in more public venues.

That is ridiculous. I've said, very bluntly, that I was absolutely sure that all the witnesses were correct, I'd say he walked away.

I have very strong reservations about now ADA Fenton, for one, who knew Mr. Gricar and saw him in another car back in Bellefonte at 3:00 PM on the day he disappeared. If I was 75% sure she really saw him, yes, I'd be saying walkaway.

I've given the 4/15/05 Lewisburg above a 99%+ chance of being correct. Please try to be accurate.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally Posted by 2-B

Is Lara saying, "I'm certain without a doubt that my father is not out there alive and well" and "I highly doubt my dad is still alive" on video sufficient "indication" that she believes he is likely dead?

This is in response to the walkaway theory, btw.

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=1633373n&tag=api

It wouldn't download, sorry. And I could not locate a transcript. And yet we have the quotes from Goodall.

[J. J. in Phila]

Just a note: Carolyn Fenton, now an ADA, but then a law clerk to a local judge reported seeing Mr. Gricar driving another vehicle behind the Courthouse in Bellefonte at 3:00 PM on the day he disappeared, 4/15/05. He was seen in Lewisburg, driving the Mini, earlier in the afternoon and later in the day.

If I was sure Ms. Fenton, who knew Mr. Gricar personally, was correct, I'd be saying this was probably walkaway. I only give her a 50% chance of being correct.

[2-B]

Originally Posted by J. J. in Phila

It wouldn't download, sorry. And I could not locate a transcript. And yet we have the quotes from Goodall.

Pgal has provided TWO separate links for the video over on In Session. You don't need to download it to your computer, just play it, but it may take some time to download to the site.

Meanwhile, I've provided you with a transcript of the parts you asked specifically to have, i.e., a quote from Lara saying she believed her father was dead.

On that video, her portion starts at 2:34. When talk turns to the walkaway theory, Lara says, "I'm certain without a doubt that my father is not out there alive and well" and "I highly doubt my dad is still alive."

This confirms that TG was correctly representing Lara's position when he said, “Speaking for myself, Lara and my brother, we don’t believe he is still alive and don’t think he will walk through the door."

In April 2008, Barbara Gray, who was married to Gricar for over 20 years and retained a cordial relationship with him after their divorce, wrote in an email that their daughter was so "precious" to Mr. Gricar that she couldn't "imagine him consciously choosing to leave her."

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08106...#ixzz0XHZLTjJl

Even Darryl Zaccagni, the one-time lead detective, has publicly said he believed Gricar was likely dead:

DZ: "I think chances are better he's dead than alive."

http://www.crimeandjustice.us/forums...opic=163&st=20

A friend or two here or there may have believed Gricar was capable of walking away, but I don't recall anyone ever saying they believed that he DID walk away.

That's a huge contrast with Nick's case, where people (most notably Nick's wife of seven years) soon after the disappearance not only claimed that Nick was capable of walking away but claimed they thought he DID walk away.

[2-B]

Originally Posted by J. J. in Phila

Just a note: Carolyn Fenton, now an ADA, but then a law clerk to a local judge reported seeing Mr. Gricar driving another vehicle behind the Courthouse in Bellefonte at 3:00 PM on the day he disappeared, 4/15/05. He was seen in Lewisburg, driving the Mini, earlier in the afternoon and later in the day.

If I was sure Ms. Fenton, who knew Mr. Gricar personally, was correct, I'd be saying this was probably walkaway. I only give her a 50% chance of being correct.

Just a note on your percentages, JJ.

I've seen the calculations you use to come up with the percentages you assign to witnesses.

I've also seen the formulas scientists use to calculate such things.

Yours bear no resemblance whatsoever to the real thing. I prefer to work with formulas the people who have a background in the science of witness memory and identification use.

[J. J. in Phila]

Originally Posted by 2-B

.

Yours bear no resemblance whatsoever to the real thing. I prefer to work with formulas the people who have a background in the science of witness memory and identification use.

No, I use common sense that If 8 or more people saw Mr. Gricar in the same area, where his car was found, where his scent was detected, none of whom contradict each other, and at least six of them saw him driving the same car, he was probably there. Now, that describes Lewisburg on 4/15/05.

I have problems with the Fenton sighting (Bellefonte, 3:00 PM, 4/15/05), the Lewisburg witnesses on 4/16/05, and the Wilkes-Barrie witnesses (4/19/05). Not as many, no physical evidence, some probably did communicate with each other (Lewisburg, 4/16).

Interestingly, I do some people in LE that have less problems with the Lewisburg 4/16 witnesses than I do.

[One2Snoop]

Are we still talking about Francisco here?